A Budget-Constrained, Drift-Aware Framework for Early Warning of MSME Repayment Stress
Keywords:
MSME credit risk, early-warning system, concept drift, risk ranking, uncertainty estimation, selective prediction, review-budget allocation.Abstract
Micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) lenders must identify emerging repayment stress early while workingwith limited field-investigation capacity and borrower populations whose behavior changes over time. This paper proposes a budgeted early-warning framework that converts calibrated short-horizon stress probabilities
References
[1] Reserve Bank of India, “Framework for Revival and Rehabilitation of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs),” FIDD.MSME & NFS.BC.No.21/06.02.31/2015-16, Mar. 17, 2016.
[2] Reserve Bank of India, “Frequently Asked Questions: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises,” sections on revival and rehabilitation and identification of incipient stress. [Online]. Available: https://www.rbi.org.in/commonperson/English/Scripts/FAQs.aspx?Id=966. Accessed: Oct. 16, 2026.
