Probabilistic Bounds on Reliability Degradation Under Correlated Disruptions
Keywords:
Reliability Degradation, Correlated Failures, Probabilistic Bounds, Redundancy Collapse, Redundancy Collapse Coefficient, Concentration Inequalities, Gaussian Copula, Beta-Binomial Model, Resilience EngineeringAbstract
Large-scale digital infrastructure is routinely designed underindependence assumptions that produce over-optimistic availability
estimates. Regional outages, software regressions, shared control-planedependencies, and network partition events co-occur in ways that violatestatistical independence, inflating aggregate failure variance andamplifying tail-risk probabilities beyond levels predicted by classical reliability theory.
References
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Wenli Liu, et al., "A cascading failure-based approach for assessing the resilience of urban stormwater networks," Sustainable Cities and Society, 2025. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2210670725007656?dgcid=rss_sd_all
