Assessing the Growth and Structural Stability of Food Grain Production in India: An Approach to Structural Stability Regression Model

Abstract

The growth and structural stability of agricultural production, particularly in food grains, along with the area under cultivation and yield per hectare, are key indicators of an economy's contribution and stability. This research aims to assess the growth and structural stability of food grain production, the cultivated area, and yield per hectare in India during two periods: before the implementation of the new agricultural policy (1980-2000) and after its introduction (2001-2023). Secondary data for this analysis was sourced from the "Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy (2022-23)" published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). To estimate and compare the growth of production, cultivated area, and yield, the structural stability regression modelemployed for the analysis.The findings indicate that, between 1980-2000 and 2001-2020, the average production and yield of food grains increased by CAGR of 3.99 and 3.70, respectively, despite only0.11 in the area under cultivation. The study reveals a structural shift over time in food grain production and the area under cultivation in India. The increase in food grain production is attributed mainly to the expansion of cultivated area, improvements in yield per hectare, and changes in production patterns. Therefore, it is crucial to focus on expanding the cultivated area by utilizing available land more effectively and enhancing yield through technological innovations, agricultural research, and training, alongside strengthening policy implementation in India.